UPA Wins the trust vote by 275-256 … What’s next

Today’s trust vote episode has finally ended. As per the last reports the UPA government won the trust vote by 275-256. 10 members did not cast vote. The trust vote episode also shown us many on screen and off screen drama, debates, and others. It is interesting to know who voted for, against and who were absent? How many MPs defied the party whip. The next 3-4 hours will tell us the story in details. Click here for details

The results of trust vote is going to change political equation within the country. The congress and SP may work together. Mulayum and Amar Singh will again come to lime light. Life will be difficult for BSP and Mayawati. National conference will be back in scenario. I am not sure to whom Deve Gowda voted for. If he had voted against the government, then problems are ahead for him. Similar case is with Ajit Singh. The MPs voted in favour of UPA will be definetly rewarded.

These political equations change at speed greater than light and hence we can not determine how long it will last. But as everyone says every dog has its day… today its the day for UPA, SP and all other parties who supported the government.

But more importantly , atleast the long awaited nuclear deal will be on now and UPA will be out of political blackmailing of left parties. Manmohan Singh has proved to be the tough prime minister. We will probably see more economic reforms since the SP, a major party after congress in UPA is very pro-reforms. But one need to see how the war between Ambani brothers will shape up with Amar singh having more say in the government.

Lets wait and watch as more and more political drama unfolds

Critically yours

Kiran

Left Withdraws Support …. Why today ?

The left parties today announced that they are withdrawing support to UPA government and will meet President tomorrow to inform their decision. This is no surprise as everyone expected it to happen. But again it is the timing which is probably debatable.

Our prime minister is attending G-8 meeting. Let us remember that he is attending this meeting as a prime minister of India and not as a prime minster of UPA. Now probably Prime minister is attending a meeting as a leader of minority government in India and may feel awkward. The timing of support withdrawal by left parties has put prime minister and India in embarrassment. This may not reflect bad on UPA or communist or any other party, but will definitely  have bad image about India. The UPA government may still survive and nuclear deal may still be signed, but this support withdrawal by Left parties will be a black spot on India’s image. The nuclear deal is a debatable issue and some people oppose and some people support. But at any cost the nations interest and image should not be compromised and all the parties should understand this.

The left parties are always looked as obstacle for India’s growth in recent years especially in the eyes of modern and young Indians. This is basically due to sticking to old ideology by Left parties.The leftist movement started for a noble cause to bridge to gap between rich and poor. However it was more appropriate 40-50 years back, when the rich always had an upper hand. But today world has changed. Until unless we go towards capitalism , we will not be able to bridge this gap.

Any ideology has some shelf life and need to change with time. What is more important for that particular era need to be adopted. The china understood this and even though it is a communist nation has changed with the time and adopted capitalism within communism. In India, our left parties need to understand this. Today they are labeled as growth retarders. Left may keep its ideology intact but need to be flexible in few of the issues. The left may have to pay a very heavy price for this decision. But again India is a country of uncertain politics and no one can predict what will happen in next election

Critically yours

Kiran

India -US Nuclear Deal … Few questions and answers.

India is a democracy and it is best reflected in the latest dispute on nuclear deal with US. India is divided in to two groups. One side, we have Mr. Manmohan Singh and his team, who are determined to go for the deal and on the other side we have left parties headed by Mr. Prakash Karat, who are dead against the deal. The deal is in dead lock and India may end up as a looser if it drops the deal.

Question now here is whether it is the ideological difference or it is politically motivated. Left says they are ideologically opposing the deal, but difficult to digest. Left probably are trying to use this issue again to prove their presence in this country.

So What is this deal all about ?

The deal says that US will assist India in its civilian nuclear programs and in return India has to offer its civilian nuclear sites for inspection by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Why Manmohan Singh & Team are determined to go for it ?

We all know Manmohan Singh as a man who always supported liberalization and growth. He is very much convinced about the deal and understands clearly that unless we take assistance from US , we will not be in a position to sustain our growth. The deal will allow India to build many nuclear reactors for power generation.

In the present scenario, India has two major constraints for its growth. One, the power shortage and future demand for power is growing exponentially. Second, the India does not have enough natural resources and imports most of its oil from other countries. If the nuclear deal is through and India is able to generate power by nuclear energy, then both the problems of reliance on oil as well as power shortage will be solved to a major extent. Hence this will prove to be an advantage for India. Other than that the diplomatic relation with US will also be beneficial to India, which in turn will catalyze the growth of many Indian businesses which are dependent on US economy.

Why Prakash Karat & Team are opposing the deal ?

The left parties see this deal as a conflict of national interest. They are of the opinion that by going for this deal, US will indirectly have a control/say on Indian affairs. This is not going well wit left parties and hence they are ideologically (??) not supporting the deal.

Why US is interested in the deal ?

US understands India is a major emerging market and wants to improve the diplomatic relationship with India. Also it wants to strengthen its base in South Asia by having relationship with India . The US is not so much comfortable with its old alley Pakistan because of political turbulence there. It wants to limit the growth and influence of China in Asia by supporting the equally good economy of India.

What India should do ?

There are pros and cons for every deal and no deal will be one sided. India will be gaining a lot by this deal and may loose few. But in national interest and if we want to see India as the next super power, this deal will provide a good platform.

Then what is the problem with Left ?

The left does not understand this ( or never tried to understand) and will never understand. They still think like 50 years back, when communal ism was a success and they never change with the time. Even if communism dies everywhere in the world, our left parties will be alive troubling others and hampering India’s growth. Even the communist China understood this and slowly opened up its market and moving towards capitalism market.

What other parties think ?

Except left, all others are supporting the deal. Even the enemies of UPA , like shiva sena have openly supported the deal. The opposition party BJP is also seems to be convinced about the deal, but opposing it politically rather than ideologically.

Finally …

The determination of Manmohan Singh Government is very good and  it should go ahead with the deal without delaying it further. This may result in left withdrawing the support and fall of UPA government. I am sure Manmohan Singh won’t budge this time and will go ahead with what is more important to nation (Growth) rather than what is more important to congress( Political Power).

Critically yours

kiran

Bowing down to Gujjar’s Demand…. Are we setting a wrong example

The recent Gujjar agitation and Ghorkaland agitation are few examples of how certain groups have adopted a skill of getting their things done by blackmailing Government.

The Gujjar agitation is an eye opener for the government. It is not very important to discuss whether the Gujjar demand is justified because I am not very well versed with their position in the society and the injustice done to them, if any. But it is more important to discuss how Gujjars organized their protest and made life miserable for many others. Blocking railways tracks and roads and causing inconvenience too many others are certainly not called for. The protests not only affected several millions citizens of India but also Gujjars. The 18 people were killed in police firing during the protests.There are many other means to show your protest but certainly not by what Gujjars did.

Imagine if all the communities gets organized and starts protesting like this for SC/OBC status. Government cannot yield to their pressure and if they yield, then there is no meaning of quota or reservation system as most of the people will fall under this category.

If the government bows downs to such type of pressure tactics and grant the demands of the agitators, like it did in Gujjar case, the government is sending a wrong message to other communities. Everyone will understand that their demand will be met if they agitate in similar way as Gujjars did. We have already seen the similar agitation for Ghorkaland, by blocking roads and calling for Bundh.

The certain reasons for these agitations are the non fulfillment of promises made by certain political parties. The parties promise many things during election, which they very well know they cannot fulfill. These promises then get converted to desire and slowly to rights. This will further develop certain leaders who try to take advantage of the situation for their own progress and provoke people to protest. The parties then gets caught in their own net and grant the demands of agitators and thus starting chain of such demands from other communities or groups

It is high time that some full stop be put on such agitation and demand should be granted only if it is justified and only after the talks are held across the table. Any groups taking law in to hand and disturbing several other people for their own benefits should be severely punished. But we all know such things cannot happen in India because there are various interests who want to capitalize the situation for their own good. The ultimate sufferer is off course the common man.

Critically yours

Kiran

Lalu Prasad Yadav & Raj Thackerey … What they are up to ?

The war of words between Lalu Prasad Yadav and Raj Thackeray has intensified further. Today Lalu Prasad Yadav in his blog  ( click here for Blog ) has attacked Raj saying that Raj is fighting for his survival. He has further said that the recent attack on north Indians was the result of fighting between Uddhav and Raj and Raj is fighting his way for political survival after parting way with Shiv Sena.

Click here for full transcript.

As I wrote in my earlier post Lalu Prasad Yadav is cleverly using his blog to attack his rivals. But I Wonder how Lalu can make such comments. There are several instances in the past, when Lalu himself used such political gimmick for his survival. Both Raj and Lalu are trying to be the mass leaders. One is attempting to be the leader of Maharastrians and the other portrays himself as messiah of Biharis. It would be better if they concentrate more on serving the people rather than try to leverage political advantage by doing these political gimmick. As one of my earlier post showed the ground realities of Indian Railyways, Lalu should concentrate more on improving the sanitation and hygiene at Railways rather then on silly things like this. If Lalus’ blog listed the few of actions he is planning to take for improving these aspects of Railways, it would have been better. But who is bothered about that ?

Raj can become a great leader, only if he is concentrating more on real issues concerning the Maharastrians. But as the tradition goes, everyone wants to have a strong foothold in the politics by playing the emotions of the people. The war between  these two forward politicians   is becoming a  destructive politics rather than a constructive one. You can expect a fiery reply from Raj Thackerey for Lalu’s bog very soon.

Critically yours

Kiran

Karnataka Election Results … Why BJP won and Congress Lost ?

The Karnataka Election Results are out and BJP has emerged as a single largest party with 110 seats. Congress won 80 seats, JDS won 28 seats and independents won 6 seats. BJP ,even though are short of majority by 3 seats , they will be able to get support from independents and claim stake for forming the Government. Unconfirmed sources say that already 4 independents are supporting BJP. It is sure now BJP set to form its first Government in South India.

I tried to analyse why BJP won and congress Lost. First let us discuss why congress lost. This is important because the loss of Congress was gain for BJP. Try to recall a Congress Leader in Karnataka. Several names will come to mind. Veerappa Moily,Oscar Fernandes, SM Krishna, Dharam Singh, Mallikarjuna Karge, Janardhan Poojary, HK Patil, Siddharamiah and so many. Now when you have so many leaders, it is pertinent that all these leaders will fight among themselves to prove their supremacy and no one would like to recognise other as the one and only one leader of Congress in Karnataka.

Lets understand how so many powerful leaders are there in Karnataka, yet no single leader of unanimous choice. Answer is simple. At congress everything is decided at High Command. In this case how one can respect the other leader  ?. Because every leader knows more the close they are to high command, better is their growth. Hence each of these leaders tried to be close to High command and in the process gained some power. They used these powers against other leaders to undermine them and in the process spoiled the party.

Of the entire lot, SM Krishna and veerappa Moily are sensible and dignified, but they are again opposed by their own colleagues. Otherwise how one would answer sending SM Krishna as Maharashtra Governor after 2004 elections. SM Krishna had charisma  and was proving treat to many other Congress leaders and hence somehow they convinced their high command to keep Krishna away from Karnataka Politics. But in 2008 elections, they called him again but it was too late. The people of Karnataka were confused and wondering who is the congress leader. This uncertainty finally translated in to votes for BJP and congress Lost.

What Congress need to do now. First and foremost they need to decentralise their power. High Command need to only monitor and  power to be given to states. Prior to this congress need to be clear who is their leader in respective states. This leader need to be given enough authority so that all other leaders listen to him. If any issue or information  is bypassed and reaches High command, high command need to neglect this and refer it back to the leader of the state.

With several successive defeats. it is very necessary for congress to do some introspection, look at role of high command and state unit,  name a leader for each state, give him authority and make him accountable. This rethinking and reorganisation is very necessary for Congress to survive.

Why BJP won. Very clear… They went to polls saying Yediyurappa is their leader. Same was the case at Gujarat, where they went to polls saying Narendra Modi is the leader. Naming a leader prior to polls may have some negative impacts especially in Karnataka where caste based politics is still above everything. However this strategy has several other benefits. The state leader is known, people know who will be their chief minister and leader has the power within state. This is the foremost reason for BJP victory.

Second reason is that the BJP understood ground levels better. Their leaders went together to people asking for mandate, while congress leaders were fighting among themselves. The third reason for BJP victory is the sympathy factor. After the back stabbing by JDS few months back, people tend to see BJP in general and yediyurappa in particular as victimised subjects. This sympathy factor might have helped BJP to gain some seats.  Overall geographically also BJP spreaded its wing and now has presence in almost all parts of Karnataka. It is a good sign for them and it is upto them now to see how good they strengthen this further.

I do not think there is any need to discuss why JDS lost so many seats. People have understood clearly the motto and goal of this opportunistic party and decided to teach them a lesson. This is evident from results and at least now Deve Gowda should know it is not always easy to fool people.

Finally people of Karnataka are happy that they have got single party governance now and hope that under  stable government rule, Karnataka will prosper. On the other hand it is just a beginning for BJP, who need to prove  that they can provide better governance than Congress and JDS. For Congress its time to do some soul searching and reorganise themselves.

Critifcally yours

Kiran

BJP all set to form government in Karnataka …. Leadng in 112 + seats

As I see news channels, it is now certain that BJP is all set to form government in Karnataka. The latest trend shows BJP touching near 112-114 seats(Leads). Even if they fall short by 2-4 seats of majority mark of 112 seats, they will be able to make it up by support of independents. This will end governance by series of coalition  governments in Karnataka and BJP as a single party is set to form the government. The single party governance also ensures stability and no need for another election at least for next 5 eyars.

There is strong gain for BJP in Hyderbad Karnataka, while it has also made some progress in Bombay Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka ( Both these areas are stonghold of BJP). The south Karnataka has seen 3 way contest between BJP, Congress and JDS.

The opportunistic party JDS is routed out and just able to win 30-35 sets ( less by 25 seats from last election). This is a good lesson for them for being a spoilsport of last government.

Obvious choice for Chief minister is Mr. Yadiyurappa. Even though Yediyurappa is not a man of mass appeal in Karnataka but he is strong party man. He is a short tempered man, but people close to him say that he has improved a lot in last couple of years.

After seeing the performance of Congress , Janata Dal and JDS government in the past, people of Karnataka are giving a chance to BJP to show their performance. They have also given BJP a clear mandate hence no need for any coalition. Now it is up to BJP to perform and prove they are better than any other parties in Karnataka. They have no reason to come up if they do not perform.

Karnataka Election Results ….. Atleast no Coalition Govt. this time

Probably this is what people of Karnataka are hoping for, after seeing three coalition governments in last 4 years. However as the election results are being declared, most probably Karnataka is again going for a hung government.

Results so far indicates

BJP may end up between 100-110 seats. Only few seats below the halfway mark ( majority)of 112 seats.

Congress will end up between 70-75 seats.

Deve Gowda’s JDS will end up between 35-40 seats

Independents between 6-7 seats.

BJP has made a good progress from last election and set to emerge has a single largest party but still short of majority. So following few will be the options for forming the government

1. BJP if manage to get more than 105 seats, they may form government along with 6-7 independents.

2. If BJP manages to get 100-105 seats, then they may break JDS and form government along with break wayJDS. This is most possible and BJP has to shell out few ministerial berth to breakway MLAs of JDS section of

3. Congress forming government with JDS support or vice versa. This also looks a possibility, if BJP is unable to manage government formation

4. BJP forming governament with support of JDS and vice versa. This looks impossible after the bitter experience of BJP with JDS last time

People of Karnataka are hoping that one single party forms a governament and want to keep JDS away. JDS tally has significantly come down from last election and this shows people are tired of Deve Gowda, his sons and their opportunistic politics. Kumaraswamy, son of Deve Gowda and ex.chief minister of Karnataka has already indicated that BJP and congress called them untouchable. This is an indication of their importance and his presumption that BJP or Congress require their help to form the government But as I am writing this, I see BJP leading in 105 seats and it is unlikely that they require JDS help.

Critically Yours

Kiran

Karnataka Elections …. lacking a leader with mass appeal.

Karnataka is once again going for state election, Today second phase of polls is completed and one more phase is left. The election results are expected in the last week of May. I am native of Karnataka but now living away and hence decided to have a close look at state politics.

Historically Karnataka has always given some surprise results and most of the time, contrary to the national election Result. Till 1983, it was considered a stronghold of Congress and even during post emergency days, it voted for Congress. (Remember famous win of Indira Gandhi from Chikmagalur in 1978). The first non-congress government under Late Ramakrishna Hegde came to power in 1983 and the government was able to sustain and repeat the performance in 1985 in spite of congress wave after the death of Indira Gandhi. Subsequently power always shifted between Congress and Janata Dal till 2004 and most of the time exactly opposite to the national election. Karnataka also has the reputation of voting one party for state and another for center many times. BJP which was slowly building its base in Karnataka emerged as the largest party in 2004, but could not form the Government, because of shrewd and opportunistic politics by Deve Gowda.

The Karnataka politics is now very complex with as no party provided good governance or a leader for past few years. The congress has a good leader in SM Krishna, who is widely accepted among middle class. But the Karnataka congress has too many heavyweights and many of them do not want to accept Krishna has leader. This is a typical case when too many leaders spoil the party for their individual benefits. Reverse is true for BJP. It has a very strong base and mostly united, but lacks a strong leader of public acceptance. Yadiyurappa and Anant Kumar are both strong party men, but lacks public appeal. Then you have a JD (S), mostly seen has a party seeking opportunities. Kumaraswamy, son of Deve Gowda provided better than expected governance during his tenure of 20 months as Chief Minister, but his and his father’s political game in breaking the promise with BJP of handing over the power to BJP shadowed his positives. Except few places in Karnataka, the JD (S) is very weak in Karnataka, but these few seats are sufficient for formation of one more hung government and probably again JD(s) will have an upper hand with few seats in its hand.

What is very important and missing in Karnataka is a charismatic leader with mass appeal. In 1980s late Ramakrishna Hegde was able to attract such mass attention because of his non-nonsense politics. Subsequently only SM Krishna came close in achieving such mass appeal because of his eagerness in developing Karnataka and popularity among educated middle class. Even former Prime Minister Deve Gowda was able to develop mass appeal to some extent, but he lost it because of his shrewdness and opportunistic politics.

I hope at least this time, Karnataka to come out of hung assembly and single party should come to power. This is very important to take Karnataka in the path to progress which had began 10-15 years back but now going at snails pace due to political instability.

For more info on Karnatak Elections click here

Critically Yours

Kiran

Jaipur Blasts …. One more blot on Mankind

I am little unnerved after seeing the footage of Jaipur Blast aftermath on TV. 8 blasts, 60 people killed , more than 200 injured and above all entire city destabilised for a while. Few questions raised in my mind and like to share with you.

Why these blasts ? Why Jaipur ? What messages the terrorists wants to give ?/ Whoever is behind these blasts probably are not able to understand the life. The crying mothers and children who lost their sons and parents due to this manmade disaster made me to think again the purpose of mankind and for that matter Humanity.

We have seen in history any such violence attempts by any group for any purpose never succeeded and only died its own natural death. History is the evidence for this. Then still why people are playing with innocents life for their own interest. I am not able to find answers. Probably nobody including terrorists.

Critically yours

Kiran